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“Hi-de-Hi campers!”
Here we are in a new world now governed by a Labour administration, with all the ‘thrills and spills’ attached to this notion.
Whatever your political affiliation may be, the Tories looked worn out and bereft of ideas. Despite Rishi Sunak being a decent chap, by calling a premature election this was thoroughly imprudent and I’m afraid the drubbing that his party suffered, unprecedented for 100 years, was the predictable culmination of a succession of mismanagement and poor political judgment.
Clearly the Labour party ‘high command’ felt that they did not need to dramatically change the economic roadmap from the one set by the Tories, since left to their own devices the Conservatives would do a perfectly good job of ‘scuttling their own ship’, without the need of any help from them. And so, it came to pass!
I was pleasantly surprised that Glentree’s property transactions, agreed before the election in July 2024, were not interrupted by the political process before and after the event and life has continued through the summer, pretty much unfazed, although seasonally quiet.
Hark, there is good news on UK economic growth front and inflation, for the moment, sits within the Bank of England guidelines. Therefore, we can expect before the year end, at least one or two more downward turns in the interest rates, which is good news for mortgagees, and this is reflected by attractive, long term, fixed-rate deals from the usual lending institutions.
Lo and behold, the UK looks as though, for the moment at least, it has some sustainable economic growth as a legacy of the Tory administration, which will underpin Sterling against the basket of other currencies.
All this will be ‘grist to the mill´ for the residential property market up to £3million, where I anticipate values will move sideways for the next 9-12 months.
Compared with two years ago, the fizz in this sector has certainly abated; nevertheless, whilst there may be fewer buyers (particularly unencumbered ones) there certainly is not an avalanche of properties for sale and therefore, equilibrium between them is maintained which would suggest markets and values will be stable, for the time being.
For instance, if the supply of properties for sale increases for the available demand, then values will move southwards, but currently there is no sign of this happening.
For properties selling in the £5million-£10million range, given that unemployment in the UK is fairly steady and the capital markets still robust (despite some recent corrections), as long as sellers are realistic with their value aspirations, properties will sell. If, however, asking prices exceed real underlying value by more than 5-10%, this will act as a brake or an insurance against a sale and Lord knows we have many examples of unsold properties still loitering, after many years of fruitless marketing.
In the ‘uber value’ sector, above £10million, this is much more dependent on international buyers who are understandably concerned about changes to the non-Dom tax arrangements that our new lady Chancellor is proposing in her autumn Budget 2024.
To be honest, the Labour Party has not made any secret of its intentions to change this tax and in any event, the Tories tried feebly to ‘steal their clothes’ in the spring Budget of 2024.
When these wealthy buyers hopefully return from their mediterranean retreats in autumn 2024, we will soon see be able to tell whether these fiscal changes are going to have a damning effect on their sentiments and therefore, values.
Lest we forget, London is not ‘the greatest city on earth’ by accident. There is no rival metropolis in the western world which offers all the centres of excellence in one safe, liberal, tolerant place, steeped in history, with 45% green open spaces and is geopolitically convenient to the worlds of the east and west.
Over our 50-year provenance, we are able to procure blue-chip buyers, sellers and tenants from the locality and over many far-flung major financial capitals of the world, using our Global reach.
Somewhat uniquely, Glentree is the longest serving, specialist agency in northwest London, under the same management and run as a family business and our disciplines and probity are inviolate.
Usually, we have the largest selection of new homes under one roof, and I am delighted to announce a number of new, exciting apartment schemes which will be launched within the next 12 months and will offer discerning buyers/tenants a selection of high-quality properties, which are affordable and a great opportunity for the empty nesters amongst us. Watch this space!
Not only do we set high standards for our clients, but we want them to enjoy the journey with us.
Trevor S. Abrahmsohn
Managing Director
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